Groningen 0-0 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Utrecht travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Eredivisie matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Utrecht — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Groningen 3.00 PPG, Utrecht 3.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.39 xG and Utrecht 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.966 / defence 1.150 | Utrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.156. Data: 1 Groningen games / 1 Utrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Groningen 43% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 31%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Utrecht 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 43% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Groningen 1.39 / Utrecht 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.966 / def 1.150 | Utrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Groningen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Utrecht xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Utrecht kick off?
Groningen vs Utrecht kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Utrecht?
Groningen 0 - 0 Utrecht.
Where is Groningen vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Utrecht part of?
Groningen vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 43% chance of winning, Utrecht a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Groningen and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and Utrecht in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Utrecht (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.97x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.76
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.52
1.13
Utrecht xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Groningen and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Groningen and 1.13 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Groningen have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Utrecht's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 3.00 PPG, Utrecht on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 4.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Groningen's scoring rate against Utrecht's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Utrecht in 0%.
Defensively: Utrecht in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Groningen or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Utrecht in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Utrecht runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Groningen's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, Utrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Groningen 1-2 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Groningen's recent matches and 0% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Groningen's matches and 100% of Utrecht's.
Do Groningen and Utrecht tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and Utrecht finished level at 0-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.39 xG and Utrecht 1.13 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Utrecht landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 43% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 31%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 100%, Utrecht 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 3.00 PPG, Utrecht 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Utrecht managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.