Groningen 0-5 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Rotterdam (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Groningen face Sparta Rotterdam.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam meet at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Groningen (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Sparta Rotterdam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Sparta Rotterdam arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Groningen, 2 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 60% versus Sparta Rotterdam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 54% | Sparta Rotterdam 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.10 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.781 / defence 1.189 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.124 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.290. Groningen's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Groningen games / 67 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 23% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 50%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.00. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 50% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 23% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Groningen 1.10 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.781 / def 1.189 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.124 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Sparta Rotterdam xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Groningen 0 - 5 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 23% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (3 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 2W.
What form are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Groningen (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.78) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (1.12x) against Groningen's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
23%
4.44
27%
3.65
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.83
1.72
Sparta Rotterdam xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
4%
24.91
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Groningen and 1.72 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen's recent record stands at 13W 15D 39L from 67 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 24W 19D 24L across 67 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Rotterdam by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 7W 9D 17L from 33 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 13W 15D 39L in their last 67 games (0.81 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 24W 19D 24L in their last 67 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Sparta Rotterdam's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.91 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-5 on 28 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Groningen
1
Draws
6
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 58%, Sparta Rotterdam 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Groningen) and 54% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 36%; Groningen have failed to score in 30% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Groningen's recent matches and 39% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Groningen's recent games and 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Groningen 0-5 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.10 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.72 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.72 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.78 / defence 1.19 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.12 / defence 0.84, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 23% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 50%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 54%, Sparta Rotterdam 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.