Groningen 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Groningen welcome PEC Zwolle to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 1W 4D 1L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 7L across 7 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 57% versus PEC Zwolle 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Groningen 43% | PEC Zwolle 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.52 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.785 / defence 0.950 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.624 / defence 1.594. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.299. Groningen's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.594 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Groningen games / 14 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 55% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 19%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | PEC Zwolle 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 50% | PEC Zwolle 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 55% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Groningen 1.52 / PEC Zwolle 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.785 / def 0.950 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.624 / def 1.594 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Groningen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.77
PEC Zwolle xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Groningen 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 55% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Groningen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Groningen's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.87
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.29
0.77
PEC Zwolle xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
4%
24.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Groningen and 0.77 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 11L across 14 games — 0.36 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Groningen by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 0W 0D 6L across 6 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.50 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 2D 11L in their last 14 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Groningen's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.17 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Groningen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Groningen
5
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 50%, PEC Zwolle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Groningen and 67% for PEC Zwolle.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 33% of games; PEC Zwolle in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Groningen's recent matches and 50% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Groningen's recent games and 67% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and PEC Zwolle finished level at 1-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.52 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.77 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.62 / defence 1.59, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 55% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 19%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 43%, PEC Zwolle 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.