Groningen 4-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees NEC Nijmegen travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 3W 4D 3L at Euroborg — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Groningen at 1.20 PPG versus NEC Nijmegen's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Groningen have won 0, NEC Nijmegen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 60% versus NEC Nijmegen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 36% | NEC Nijmegen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.06 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.711 / defence 0.904 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.827 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.324. Groningen's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NEC Nijmegen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Groningen games / 25 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 37% | Draw 30% | NEC Nijmegen 33%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | NEC Nijmegen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Groningen 50% | NEC Nijmegen 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 37% | Draw 30% | NEC Nijmegen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Groningen 1.06 / NEC Nijmegen 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.711 / def 0.904 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.827 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Groningen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.99
NEC Nijmegen xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Groningen 4 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 37% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Groningen and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 0 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Groningen and NEC Nijmegen in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.71) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.30
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.05
0.99
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
11%
8.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Groningen and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Groningen and 0.99 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 7W 9D 9L from 25 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 10L across 25 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.20 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 3W 6D 3L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 6W 3D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.24 PPG overall record — NEC Nijmegen travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.20 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.25 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Groningen or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Groningen
1
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NEC Nijmegen?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Groningen 2-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 50%, NEC Nijmegen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 8% for Groningen and 42% for NEC Nijmegen.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 33%; Groningen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Groningen's games and 67% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of Groningen's recent games and 42% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Groningen edge out NEC Nijmegen 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat NEC Nijmegen 4-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.06 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.99 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.71 / defence 0.90 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.83 / defence 1.32, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 37% | Draw 30% | NEC Nijmegen 33%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 36%, NEC Nijmegen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.20 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.