Groningen 0-3 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Feyenoord travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 January 2023, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Groningen, 0 for Feyenoord and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 63% versus Feyenoord 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 53% | Feyenoord 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.47 xG and Feyenoord 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.079 / defence 1.291 | Feyenoord attack 1.290 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.265. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Groningen games / 49 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 25% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 51%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Feyenoord 1.96. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | Feyenoord 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 25% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Groningen 1.47 / Feyenoord 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.079 / def 1.291 | Feyenoord attack 1.290 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Feyenoord xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Groningen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Groningen 0 - 3 Feyenoord.
Where is Groningen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Feyenoord part of?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 25% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Groningen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 2 | Feyenoord 0W.
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (1.08) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
25%
3.97
24%
4.14
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.58
2.11
Feyenoord xG
3.97
25%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
12%
8.22
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
3%
32.57
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Groningen and 2.11 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 12D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.14 PPG from 49 outings (32W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 6W 7D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.04 points per game from 24 outings (15W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.29 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 12W 12D 25L in their last 49 games (0.98 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 32W 9D 8L in their last 49 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.04 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Groningen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Groningen
3
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 62%, Feyenoord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Groningen) and 62% (Feyenoord).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Groningen's games and 67% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Groningen's recent games and 62% of Feyenoord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Groningen 0-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.47 xG and Feyenoord 2.11 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Feyenoord outscored their 2.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.08 / defence 1.29 against Feyenoord attack 1.29 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 25% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 51%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 53%, Feyenoord 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feyenoord's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.