Groningen 0-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Groningen at 48%, yet in-form Feyenoord provide a compelling counter-argument — this Groningen vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Feyenoord travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Groningen are significantly better at Euroborg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Groningen.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2025, ended 1–4 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 52% versus Feyenoord 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 52% | Feyenoord 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.91 xG and Feyenoord 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.238 / defence 0.761 | Feyenoord attack 1.380 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.412. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Groningen's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Groningen games / 40 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 48% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 30%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Feyenoord 3.33. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Feyenoord (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 70% | Feyenoord 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 48% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Groningen 1.91 / Feyenoord 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.238 / def 0.761 | Feyenoord attack 1.380 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Groningen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Feyenoord xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Groningen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Groningen 0 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Groningen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Feyenoord part of?
Groningen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 48% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Groningen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Record (6 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 3 | Feyenoord 3W.
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in?
Groningen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (1.24) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
48%
2.09
22%
4.51
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.39
1.48
Feyenoord xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
4%
22.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Groningen and 1.48 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 9D 17L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.10 PPG from 40 outings (25W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 11W 6D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Groningen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.95 points per game from 20 outings (11W 6D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.25 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 25W 9D 6L in their last 40 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Feyenoord away?
Groningen's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.95 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Groningen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Groningen
3
Draws
5
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Feyenoord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 45%, Feyenoord 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Groningen) and 60% (Feyenoord).
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Groningen's games and 65% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Groningen's recent games and 60% of Feyenoord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Feyenoord defy the odds to beat Groningen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Groningen 0-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.91 xG and Feyenoord 1.48 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Groningen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.24 / defence 0.76 against Feyenoord attack 1.38 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 48% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 30%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Feyenoord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 52%, Feyenoord 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feyenoord's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.