Groningen 1-3 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajax make the trip to Euroborg to face Groningen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajax (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajax have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Ajax are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Groningen 0W, Ajax 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Groningen — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games).
Ajax — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 63% versus Ajax 26%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 41% | Ajax 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 0.92 xG and Ajax 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.922 / defence 1.099 | Ajax attack 1.131 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.278. Data: 27 Groningen games / 27 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 22% | Draw 25% | Ajax 53%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Ajax 1.89. Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajax if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | Ajax 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 22% | Draw 25% | Ajax 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Groningen 0.92 / Ajax 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.922 / def 1.099 | Ajax attack 1.131 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Ajax (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Ajax xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Ajax kick off?
Groningen vs Ajax kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Ajax?
Groningen 1 - 3 Ajax.
Where is Groningen vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Ajax part of?
Groningen vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 22% chance of winning, Ajax a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Groningen and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Ajax?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 0 | Ajax 1W.
What form are Groningen and Ajax in?
Groningen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Ajax (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.13x) against Groningen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
22%
4.58
25%
3.98
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.51
1.59
Ajax xG
4.58
22%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
4%
22.45
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Groningen and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Groningen and 1.59 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 9D 9L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 2.44 PPG from 27 outings (21W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Groningen's home form reads 4W 6D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 2.46 points per game from 13 outings (10W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.96 scored and 0.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Ajax in 26%.
Defensively: Ajax in 70% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Ajax in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 9W 9D 9L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Ajax have gone 21W 3D 3L in their last 27 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.38 PPG; Ajax away: 2.46 PPG.
Have Groningen or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Ajax in 70%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 6-1 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Groningen
1
Draws
7
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Ajax?
From 9 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Ajax have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Ajax 2-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 54%, Ajax 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Groningen and 46% for Ajax.
On the defensive side: Ajax in 69%; Groningen have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Groningen's recent matches and 31% of Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Groningen's recent games and 46% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Ajax tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ajax in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajax cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Groningen 1-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 0.92 xG and Ajax 1.59 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ajax outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Ajax attack 1.13 / defence 0.89, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 22% | Draw 25% | Ajax 53%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 41%, Ajax 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 70% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.