GO Ahead Eagles 1-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees PEC Zwolle travel to De Adelaarshorst to take on GO Ahead Eagles. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GO Ahead Eagles stand at 1W 0D 3L from 4 Eredivisie matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. GO Ahead Eagles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 0W 0D 4L from 4 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GO Ahead Eagles are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.75 PPG ahead (0.75 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). GO Ahead Eagles's 25% and PEC Zwolle's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Data
GO Ahead Eagles trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (GO Ahead Eagles 25% | PEC Zwolle 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (GO Ahead Eagles 25% | PEC Zwolle 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.31 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.844 / defence 1.035 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.617 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.116. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing GO Ahead Eagles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 GO Ahead Eagles games / 4 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 51% | Draw 29% | PEC Zwolle 20%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | PEC Zwolle 5.00. GO Ahead Eagles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GO Ahead Eagles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 25% | PEC Zwolle 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 51% | Draw 29% | PEC Zwolle 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.31 / PEC Zwolle 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.844 / def 1.035 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.617 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
0.71
PEC Zwolle xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
GO Ahead Eagles 1 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 51% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GO Ahead Eagles's attack rating (0.84) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.48
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
2.03
0.71
PEC Zwolle xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
5%
18.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 0.71 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GO Ahead Eagles come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 0D 3L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 0.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GO Ahead Eagles carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: GO Ahead Eagles have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 0%.
Last 4 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GO Ahead Eagles have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GO Ahead Eagles
4
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when GO Ahead Eagles 5-0 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — GO Ahead Eagles 25% BTTS, PEC Zwolle 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for GO Ahead Eagles and 0% for PEC Zwolle.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles have failed to score in 50% of games; PEC Zwolle in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent matches and 0% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent games and 0% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GO Ahead Eagles edge out PEC Zwolle 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GO Ahead Eagles beat PEC Zwolle 1-0 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.31 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.71 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.62 / defence 1.21, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 51% | Draw 29% | PEC Zwolle 20%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 25%, PEC Zwolle 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 12%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, GO Ahead Eagles arrived the stronger side — 0.75 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. GO Ahead Eagles conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.