GO Ahead Eagles 3-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cambuur at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur meet at De Adelaarshorst in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GO Ahead Eagles have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 3W 1D 6L at De Adelaarshorst — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GO Ahead Eagles have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cambuur in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for GO Ahead Eagles, 1 for Cambuur and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–5 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
GO Ahead Eagles half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GO Ahead Eagles 50% and Cambuur 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 42% | Cambuur 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.35 xG and Cambuur 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.900 / defence 1.330 | Cambuur attack 0.877 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.293. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing GO Ahead Eagles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 GO Ahead Eagles games / 26 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 34% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 41%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GO Ahead Eagles 70% | Cambuur 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 34% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.35 / Cambuur 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.900 / def 1.330 | Cambuur attack 0.877 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Cambuur xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur?
GO Ahead Eagles 3 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 34% chance of winning, Cambuur a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): GO Ahead Eagles 0W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
GO Ahead Eagles's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.88x) against GO Ahead Eagles's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
34%
2.93
25%
4.02
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
2.86
1.51
Cambuur xG
2.93
34%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
8%
13.26
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.51 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, GO Ahead Eagles have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 7W 6D 13L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 10W 3D 13L from 26 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for GO Ahead Eagles against 1.27 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (5W 1D 7L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 5W 2D 6L from 13 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.65 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 73%.
Last 26 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 10W 3D 13L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.23 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 5-2 on 11 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GO Ahead Eagles have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GO Ahead Eagles
1
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 1, Cambuur have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Cambuur 4-1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambuur see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 54%, Cambuur 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GO Ahead Eagles) and 62% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles have failed to score in 31% of games; Cambuur in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent matches and 54% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent games and 62% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and Cambuur tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant GO Ahead Eagles run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GO Ahead Eagles beat Cambuur 3-0 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.35 xG and Cambuur 1.51 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.90 / defence 1.33 against Cambuur attack 0.88 / defence 1.35, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 34% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 41%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual GO Ahead Eagles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 42%, Cambuur 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.04 PPG, Cambuur 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GO Ahead Eagles win broke the near-deadlock. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.