Fortuna Sittard 3-3 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Sittard host Heerenveen at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's home record at Fortuna Sittard Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heerenveen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortuna Sittard at 1.40 PPG versus Heerenveen's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 3 for Heerenveen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–3 with Heerenveen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Heerenveen in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 49% versus Heerenveen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 60% | Heerenveen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.80 xG and Heerenveen 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.892 / defence 0.942 | Heerenveen attack 0.867 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.440. Heerenveen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Fortuna Sittard games / 53 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 22%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Heerenveen 4.55. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Heerenveen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.80 / Heerenveen 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.892 / def 0.942 | Heerenveen attack 0.867 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Heerenveen xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Fortuna Sittard 3 - 3 Heerenveen.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 50% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 2W | Draws 0 | Heerenveen 3W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.58
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.98
1.18
Heerenveen xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
4%
27.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.18 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 16W 11D 26L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen's form line: 18W 11D 24L from 53 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 1.11 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.38 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 11D 26L in their last 53 games (1.11 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Heerenveen away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.38 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Heerenveen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortuna Sittard
2
Draws
4
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 4, Heerenveen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Heerenveen 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 42%, Heerenveen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fortuna Sittard) and 58% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 38% of games; Heerenveen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 46% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 58% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Fortuna Sittard and Heerenveen drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.80 xG and Heerenveen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heerenveen outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Heerenveen attack 0.87 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 50% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 22%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 60%, Heerenveen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.11 PPG, Heerenveen 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.