Fortuna Sittard 0-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Fortuna Sittard welcome Emmen to Fortuna Sittard Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Fortuna Sittard carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Emmen trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 59% versus Emmen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 61% | Emmen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.90 xG and Emmen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.819 / defence 1.087 | Emmen attack 0.661 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.325. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Fortuna Sittard games / 12 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 59% | Draw 23% | Emmen 18%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Sittard (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Emmen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 59% | Draw 23% | Emmen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.90 / Emmen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.819 / def 1.087 | Emmen attack 0.661 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Emmen xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen?
Fortuna Sittard 0 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 59% chance of winning, Emmen a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Emmen in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Emmen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.82x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.32
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.85
0.95
Emmen xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
3%
37.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.95 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 13W 8D 25L from 46 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 12L across 46 games — 1.87 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 8W 3D 12L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 10W 4D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.52 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Emmen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 13W 8D 25L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Emmen have gone 26W 8D 12L in their last 46 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.17 PPG; Emmen away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Emmen in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
1
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Emmen?
From 2 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, Emmen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Emmen 0-1 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 52%, Emmen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Fortuna Sittard) and 44% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Emmen in 35%; Emmen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 44% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 44% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Emmen tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Emmen in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Fortuna Sittard 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Fortuna Sittard 0-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.90 xG and Emmen 0.95 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Emmen attack 0.66 / defence 1.38, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 59% | Draw 23% | Emmen 18%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Emmen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 61%, Emmen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.