Feyenoord 2-1 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs Twente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus Twente in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Twente (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Twente have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Twente's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Feyenoord, 2 for Twente and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Twente half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 55% versus Twente 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 65% | Twente 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.51 xG and Twente 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.123 / defence 0.813 | Twente attack 1.336 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.258. Twente have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Feyenoord games / 41 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 40% | Draw 27% | Twente 33%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Twente 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 20% | Twente 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 40% | Draw 27% | Twente 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Feyenoord 1.51 / Twente 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.123 / def 0.813 | Twente attack 1.336 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Twente xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Twente kick off?
Feyenoord vs Twente kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Twente?
Feyenoord 2 - 1 Twente.
Where is Feyenoord vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Twente part of?
Feyenoord vs Twente is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 40% chance of winning, Twente a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Feyenoord and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Twente?
Record (6 meetings): Feyenoord 1W | Draws 3 | Twente 2W.
What form are Feyenoord and Twente in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Twente (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Twente's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Twente's attack (1.34x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.66
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.88
1.36
Twente xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.36 for Twente, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 28W 10D 2L from 40 games, a 2.35 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Twente, meanwhile, have gone 24W 8D 8L across 40 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Twente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.35 PPG for Feyenoord against 2.00 for Twente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 14W 4D 1L from 19 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Twente's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Twente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.95 scored and 1.00 conceded. Feyenoord's scoring rate against Twente's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Twente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Twente in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 28W 10D 2L in their last 40 games (2.35 PPG), while Twente have gone 24W 8D 8L in their last 40 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Twente away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.42 PPG; Twente away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Twente in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 2-6 on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Twente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Feyenoord
4
Draws
3
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Twente?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 3, Twente have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Twente 2-0 Feyenoord.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 42%, Twente 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Feyenoord and 68% for Twente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Twente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 58% of Twente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Feyenoord's matches and 68% of Twente's.
Do Feyenoord and Twente tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Twente in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Twente 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Twente 2-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.51 xG and Twente 1.36 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.12 / defence 0.81 against Twente attack 1.34 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 40% | Draw 27% | Twente 33%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, Twente 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Twente's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.35 PPG, Twente 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Twente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.