Feyenoord vs Groningen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Groningen travel to De Kuip to take on Feyenoord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 May 2027, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's home record at De Kuip: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Feyenoord are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Feyenoord: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Groningen, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Groningen trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 63% and Groningen 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 60% | Groningen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.08 xG and Groningen 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.056 / defence 1.010 | Groningen attack 1.010 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Data: 38 Feyenoord games / 38 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 42% | Draw 21% | Groningen 36%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.38 | Draw 4.76 | Groningen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.00 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 90% | Groningen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 42% | Draw 21% | Groningen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Feyenoord 2.08 / Groningen 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.056 / def 1.010 | Groningen attack 1.010 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Groningen xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Groningen kick off?
Feyenoord vs Groningen is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at De Kuip.
Where is Feyenoord vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Groningen part of?
Feyenoord vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 42% chance of winning, Groningen a 36% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Feyenoord and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Record (8 meetings): Feyenoord 5W | Draws 3 | Groningen 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Groningen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Groningen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.06) and Groningen's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
42%
2.36
21%
4.66
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
4.00
1.92
Groningen xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.01
Clean Sheet
15%
6.81
13%
8.00
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
5%
22.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.92 for Groningen, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 21W 10D 7L from 38 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 16W 6D 16L across 38 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 11W 5D 3L from 19 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 8W 2D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.50 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Groningen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 21W 10D 7L in their last 38 games (1.92 PPG), while Groningen have gone 16W 6D 16L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Groningen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.00 PPG; Groningen away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Feyenoord
3
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 5, Groningen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Feyenoord at 79%, Groningen at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Feyenoord) and 47% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Feyenoord's games and 58% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Feyenoord's matches and 47% of Groningen's.
Do Feyenoord and Groningen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Groningen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.