FC Volendam 2-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 38%, yet in-form Utrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Volendam vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as FC Volendam welcome Utrecht to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Utrecht have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Utrecht are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Utrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Volendam, 3 for Utrecht and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Utrecht trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 63% and Utrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 72% | Utrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.42 xG and Utrecht 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.821 / defence 1.042 | Utrecht attack 0.921 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.442. Data: 18 FC Volendam games / 51 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 38% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Utrecht 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Utrecht (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 38% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Volendam 1.42 / Utrecht 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.821 / def 1.042 | Utrecht attack 0.921 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Utrecht xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Utrecht kick off?
FC Volendam vs Utrecht kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is FC Volendam vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Utrecht part of?
FC Volendam vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 38% chance of winning, Utrecht a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Volendam and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Utrecht?
Record (5 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 3W.
What form are FC Volendam and Utrecht in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.82) and Utrecht's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
38%
2.62
25%
3.96
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.81
1.39
Utrecht xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.39 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 51 games, going 28W 8D 15L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.71 PPG from 51 outings (24W 15D 12L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.80 PPG, Utrecht on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 16W 3D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.60 points per game from 25 outings (10W 10D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.76 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Utrecht in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Utrecht in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 28W 8D 15L in their last 51 games (1.80 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 24W 15D 12L in their last 51 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Utrecht away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.04 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Utrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Utrecht have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 68%, Utrecht at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Volendam and 64% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FC Volendam's games and 76% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Volendam's matches and 64% of Utrecht's.
Do FC Volendam and Utrecht tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Utrecht 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.42 xG and Utrecht 1.39 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Utrecht attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 18/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 38% | Draw 25% | Utrecht 37%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Utrecht 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.80 PPG, Utrecht 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.