FC Volendam 3-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Groningen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 29 January 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 3W 1D 6L at Kras Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for FC Volendam against 0.40 for Groningen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Groningen — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 69% and Groningen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 67% | Groningen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.48 xG and Groningen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.829 / defence 1.482 | Groningen attack 0.776 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.227. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 FC Volendam games / 52 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 37% | Draw 29% | Groningen 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Groningen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Groningen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 37% | Draw 29% | Groningen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Volendam 1.48 / Groningen 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.829 / def 1.482 | Groningen attack 0.776 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Groningen xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Groningen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Groningen?
FC Volendam 3 - 2 Groningen.
Where is FC Volendam vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Groningen part of?
FC Volendam vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 37% chance of winning, Groningen a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Volendam and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Groningen?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | Groningen 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Groningen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Groningen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.83) and Groningen's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.78x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.42
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.89
1.41
Groningen xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.41 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 23W 14D 15L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 12W 12D 28L from 52 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (14W 3D 8L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 5W 5D 15L from 25 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.13 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Groningen in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Groningen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 23W 14D 15L in their last 52 games (1.60 PPG), while Groningen have gone 12W 12D 28L in their last 52 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Groningen away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.80 PPG; Groningen away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Groningen?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Groningen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when FC Volendam 3-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Groningen?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for FC Volendam, 64% for Groningen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 84% for FC Volendam and 64% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of FC Volendam's games and 64% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 84% of FC Volendam's matches and 64% of Groningen's.
Do FC Volendam and Groningen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Groningen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Groningen 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Groningen 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.48 xG and Groningen 1.41 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.83 / defence 1.48 against Groningen attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 37% | Draw 29% | Groningen 34%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 67%, Groningen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.