FC Volendam 2-4 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Ajax meet at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ajax's overall Eredivisie record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajax have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ajax arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Ajax in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 71% versus Ajax 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 69% | Ajax 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.25 xG and Ajax 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.912 / defence 1.409 | Ajax attack 1.185 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.292. Data: 8 FC Volendam games / 42 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 22% | Draw 20% | Ajax 58%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 4.55 | Draw 5.00 | Ajax 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 90% | Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 22% | Draw 20% | Ajax 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Volendam 1.25 / Ajax 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.912 / def 1.409 | Ajax attack 1.185 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Ajax (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Ajax xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Ajax kick off?
FC Volendam vs Ajax kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Ajax?
FC Volendam 2 - 4 Ajax.
Where is FC Volendam vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Ajax part of?
FC Volendam vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 22% chance of winning, Ajax a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Volendam and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Ajax in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.91x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.19x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 2.16.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
22%
4.64
20%
4.90
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.41
2.16
Ajax xG
4.64
22%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
12%
8.66
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
2%
40.16
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Volendam and 2.16 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam come into this having played 42 games, going 21W 12D 9L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 2.43 PPG from 42 outings (32W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Volendam's home form reads 13W 3D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 2.40 points per game from 20 outings (15W 3D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.88 scored and 0.60 conceded. FC Volendam's scoring rate against Ajax's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Ajax in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 21W 12D 9L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Ajax have gone 32W 6D 4L in their last 42 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.10 PPG; Ajax away: 2.40 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ajax in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 1-4 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
2
Draws
4
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Ajax?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 0, Ajax have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Ajax 2-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 80%, Ajax 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for FC Volendam and 55% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Volendam's games and 40% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of FC Volendam's matches and 55% of Ajax's.
Do FC Volendam and Ajax tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Ajax in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajax cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat FC Volendam 2-4 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.25 xG and Ajax 2.16 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ajax outscored their 2.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.91 / defence 1.41 against Ajax attack 1.19 / defence 0.83, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 22% | Draw 20% | Ajax 58%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 69%, Ajax 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.