Cambuur 2-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Cambuur welcome Utrecht to Cambuurstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur at Cambuurstadion this season: 3W 0D 3L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.17 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cambuur at 1.80 PPG versus Utrecht's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Utrecht trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 58% versus Utrecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 75% | Utrecht 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.70 xG and Utrecht 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.139 / defence 1.404 | Utrecht attack 0.798 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.357. Data: 12 Cambuur games / 12 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 42% | Draw 23% | Utrecht 34%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | Utrecht 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 83% | Utrecht 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Cambuurstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 42% | Draw 23% | Utrecht 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Cambuur 1.70 / Utrecht 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.139 / def 1.404 | Utrecht attack 0.798 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Utrecht xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Utrecht kick off?
Cambuur vs Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Cambuurstadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Cambuur 2 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is Cambuur vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Cambuurstadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Utrecht part of?
Cambuur vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 42% chance of winning, Utrecht a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cambuur and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Utrecht in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Utrecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.14x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
42%
2.37
23%
4.30
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.22
1.52
Utrecht xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
6%
15.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.52 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambuur come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 0D 6L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cambuur's home form reads 3W 0D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Utrecht's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 2.25 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 6W 0D 6L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Utrecht away?
Cambuur's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.50 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Utrecht in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Utrecht have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cambuur 0-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 83%, Utrecht 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Cambuur and 50% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht in 50%; Utrecht in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Cambuur's games and 33% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Cambuur's matches and 50% of Utrecht's.
Do Cambuur and Utrecht tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Utrecht 2-1 at Cambuurstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.70 xG and Utrecht 1.52 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.14 / defence 1.40 against Utrecht attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 42% | Draw 23% | Utrecht 34%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 75%, Utrecht 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Cambuur winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.