Cambuur 0-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Cambuur Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 1W 3D 6L at Cambuur Stadion — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. AZ Alkmaar's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cambuur, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 70% and AZ Alkmaar 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 68% | AZ Alkmaar 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.38 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.851 / defence 1.113 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.222 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.477. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Cambuur games / 36 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 26% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 52%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | AZ Alkmaar 1.92. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 90% | AZ Alkmaar 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 26% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Cambuur 1.38 / AZ Alkmaar 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.851 / def 1.113 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.222 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.01
AZ Alkmaar xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Cambuur 0 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 26% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (2 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.85) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
26%
3.80
22%
4.63
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.39
2.01
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.80
26%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
13%
7.45
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
4%
28.32
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.01 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 7D 18L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AZ Alkmaar sit at 1.89 PPG from 37 outings (21W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 5W 3D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, AZ Alkmaar have taken 1.39 points per game from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AZ Alkmaar's season.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.08 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 76%.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 12W 7D 18L in their last 37 games (1.16 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 21W 7D 9L in their last 37 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.00 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cambuur's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cambuur
1
Draws
3
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 89%, AZ Alkmaar at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Cambuur and 78% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Cambuur's games and 83% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Cambuur's matches and 78% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Cambuur 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Cambuur 0-1 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.38 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.01 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur fell 1.4 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.22 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 26% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 52%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 68%, AZ Alkmaar 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.