AZ Alkmaar 3-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk encounter.

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Full Analysis

AFAS Stadion plays host to AZ Alkmaar versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time.

Current Form

AZ Alkmaar's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Waalwijk (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Waalwijk have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. AZ Alkmaar's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Waalwijk edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Waalwijk — a AZ Alkmaar win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 56% versus Waalwijk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 62% | Waalwijk 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.97 xG and Waalwijk 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.056 / defence 0.756 | Waalwijk attack 0.732 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.322. Waalwijk's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. AZ Alkmaar have a tight defence (rating 0.756), which is pulling Waalwijk's projected output down. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 63 games and Waalwijk's last 63.

Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 65% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 11%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.55 | Draw 4.08 | Waalwijk 9.15. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (65%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 30% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 50% (last 10 away games).

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