AZ Alkmaar 2-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

PEC Zwolle make the trip to AFAS Stadion to face AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 15:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

AZ Alkmaar's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

PEC Zwolle's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in AZ Alkmaar's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended AZ Alkmaar 2–1 PEC Zwolle — a AZ Alkmaar win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).

PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 53% versus PEC Zwolle 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 66% | PEC Zwolle 58%). Note also that PEC Zwolle surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while AZ Alkmaar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.59 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.005 / defence 0.942 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.986 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.363. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 55 games and PEC Zwolle's last 55.

Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 45% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 30%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.22 | Draw 4.06 | PEC Zwolle 3.29. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 70% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights