Almere City FC 1-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host VVV Venlo at Yanmar Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 June 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.30 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour VVV Venlo, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Almere City FC.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that VVV Venlo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 58% versus VVV Venlo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 66% | VVV Venlo 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.66 xG and VVV Venlo 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | VVV Venlo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.314. Data: 0 Almere City FC games / 0 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 45% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 28%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | VVV Venlo 3.57. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 20% | VVV Venlo 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 45% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Almere City FC 1.66 / VVV Venlo 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | VVV Venlo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
VVV Venlo xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo part of?
Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 45% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Almere City FC and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
Record (5 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 4W.
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.67
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.94
1.28
VVV Venlo xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.28 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 9D 20L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo's form line: 15W 8D 18L from 41 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.10 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 7W 3D 10L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.37 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 12W 9D 20L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or VVV Venlo away?
VVV Venlo's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.10 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2022, when VVV Venlo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 45%, VVV Venlo 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Almere City FC and 65% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 30% of games; VVV Venlo in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 45% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Almere City FC's matches and 65% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Almere City FC and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and VVV Venlo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Relegation Round, as Almere City FC and VVV Venlo drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.66 xG and VVV Venlo 1.28 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against VVV Venlo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 45% | Draw 27% | VVV Venlo 28%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 66%, VVV Venlo 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.10 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.