Almere City FC 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almere City FC host Groningen at Yanmar Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's home record at Yanmar Stadion: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Groningen have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Groningen are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Groningen in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 51% versus Groningen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 51% | Groningen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.39 xG and Groningen 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.829 / defence 1.445 | Groningen attack 0.925 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.364. Data: 37 Almere City FC games / 3 Groningen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 27% | Draw 27% | Groningen 46%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Groningen 2.17. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 70% | Groningen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 27% | Draw 27% | Groningen 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Almere City FC 1.39 / Groningen 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.829 / def 1.445 | Groningen attack 0.925 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Groningen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Groningen xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Groningen kick off?
Almere City FC vs Groningen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Groningen?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Almere City FC vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Groningen part of?
Almere City FC vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 27% chance of winning, Groningen a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Almere City FC and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Groningen in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Groningen (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
27%
3.66
27%
3.70
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.21
1.82
Groningen xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
16%
6.19
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
4%
22.65
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.82 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 37 games, going 7W 13D 17L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 2.03 PPG from 37 outings (22W 9D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 3W 7D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 1.89 points per game from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.92 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Groningen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 7W 13D 17L in their last 37 games (0.92 PPG), while Groningen have gone 22W 9D 6L in their last 37 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.89 PPG; Groningen away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Groningen in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Almere City FC
2
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Groningen?
From 2 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 0, Groningen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Groningen 0-0 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, Groningen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Almere City FC) and 56% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Groningen in 39%; Almere City FC have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 56% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Almere City FC's recent games and 56% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Groningen tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Groningen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Almere City FC and Groningen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.39 xG and Groningen 1.82 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Groningen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.45 against Groningen attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 37/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 27% | Draw 27% | Groningen 46%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 51%, Groningen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.