Almere City FC 0-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almere City FC face AZ Alkmaar.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Almere City FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Almere City FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AZ Alkmaar have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AZ Alkmaar have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Almere City FC, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Almere City FC 1–4 AZ Alkmaar — a AZ Alkmaar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 50% versus AZ Alkmaar 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 48% | AZ Alkmaar 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.07 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.799 / defence 1.087 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.035 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.450. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 20 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 54.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 23% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 48%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 4.42 | Draw 3.42 | AZ Alkmaar 2.08. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 40% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 21 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 23% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Almere City FC 1.07 / AZ Alkmaar 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.799 / def 1.087 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.035 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Almere City FC 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 21) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 23% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.80x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.03x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 20 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
23%
4.42
29%
3.42
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.70
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
4%
22.54
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.63 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 25W 13D 16L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 30W 12D 12L from 54 games, 1.89 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.89 for AZ Alkmaar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 7D 7L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 15W 5D 6L from their last 26 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.00 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Almere City FC (Home) vs AZ Alkmaar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 games (1.63 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 30W 12D 12L in their last 54 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.65 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Almere City FC on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almere City FC
2
Draws
2
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 54%, AZ Alkmaar 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Almere City FC) and 62% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs AZ Alkmaar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Almere City FC's games and 58% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Almere City FC's matches and 62% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 81% of AZ Alkmaar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almere City FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 0-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.07 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 23% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 48%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 48%, AZ Alkmaar 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.63 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eredivisie fixtures — matchday 21
All Eredivisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →