Ajax 3-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajax host PEC Zwolle at Johan Cruijff Arena in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ajax's home record at Johan Cruijff Arena: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Ajax have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ajax, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Ajax winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ajax in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajax 30% | PEC Zwolle 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 67% | PEC Zwolle 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.26 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.721 / defence 0.987 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.791 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.237. Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.721 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Ajax games / 30 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 67% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 15%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | PEC Zwolle 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajax at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ajax 40% | PEC Zwolle 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 67% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 55% | xG Ajax 2.26 / PEC Zwolle 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.721 / def 0.987 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.791 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Ajax (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.96
PEC Zwolle xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Ajax vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Ajax 3 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Ajax vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Ajax vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 67% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ajax and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Ajax 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Ajax and PEC Zwolle in?
Ajax (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ajax's attack at 1.72x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.36
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.23
0.96
PEC Zwolle xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
10%
9.60
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
65.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Ajax and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Ajax and 0.96 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Ajax have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 24W 3D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 7W 5D 18L from 30 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 1.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ajax have posted 2.47 PPG from 15 outings (12W 1D 2L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 1D 10L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajax are averaging 2.87 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.80 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 24W 3D 3L in their last 30 games (2.50 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 7W 5D 18L in their last 30 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Ajax's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.47 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Ajax or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Ajax won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Ajax
2
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Ajax have won 6, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-0 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and PEC Zwolle?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajax 27% BTTS, PEC Zwolle 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Ajax and 33% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Ajax's recent matches and 33% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajax vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Ajax's matches and 33% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Ajax and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 3-0 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat PEC Zwolle 3-0 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.26 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.96 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. PEC Zwolle landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.72 / defence 0.99 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 67% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 15%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 67%, PEC Zwolle 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.