VVV Venlo 1-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ meet at Seacon - De Koel in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
VVV Venlo (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo at Seacon - De Koel this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Jong AZ have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward VVV Venlo. A 0.60 PPG lead over Jong AZ (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Jong AZ, who have claimed 7 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with VVV Venlo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jong AZ have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 48% versus Jong AZ 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 58% | Jong AZ 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.61 xG and Jong AZ 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.827 / defence 0.969 | Jong AZ attack 1.175 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.532. Data: 59 VVV Venlo games / 60 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 36% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 41%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Jong AZ 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Jong AZ lead the H2H ledger, but VVV Venlo carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VVV Venlo (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 40% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Seacon - De Koel • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 36% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG VVV Venlo 1.61 / Jong AZ 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.827 / def 0.969 | Jong AZ attack 1.175 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Jong AZ xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Seacon - De Koel.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
VVV Venlo 1 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Seacon - De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ part of?
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 36% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both VVV Venlo and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
Record (9 meetings): VVV Venlo 1W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 7W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (0.83) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.18x) against VVV Venlo's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
36%
2.80
23%
4.36
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.36
1.75
Jong AZ xG
2.80
36%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.03
8%
12.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.75 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 21W 8D 30L from 59 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 28L across 59 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.17 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 10W 5D 15L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 12W 6D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.63 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 21W 8D 30L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 19W 12D 28L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.17 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 3-0 on 3 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
8
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 1, Jong AZ have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 47%, Jong AZ 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (VVV Venlo) and 67% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of VVV Venlo's games and 67% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of VVV Venlo's matches and 67% of Jong AZ's.
Do VVV Venlo and Jong AZ tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat VVV Venlo 1-3 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.61 xG and Jong AZ 1.75 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Jong AZ attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 36% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 41%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 58%, Jong AZ 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.20 PPG, Jong AZ 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.