VVV Venlo 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VVV Venlo and Cambuur meet at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
VVV Venlo's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, VVV Venlo have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cambuur have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Cambuur have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for VVV Venlo against 0.80 for Cambuur. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VVV Venlo lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
VVV Venlo half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 59% and Cambuur 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 61% | Cambuur 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.17 xG and Cambuur 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.908 / defence 1.017 | Cambuur attack 0.918 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.470. Data: 46 VVV Venlo games / 46 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 30% | Cambuur 40%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Cambuur 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: VVV Venlo 40% | Cambuur 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 30% | Cambuur 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG VVV Venlo 1.17 / Cambuur 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.908 / def 1.017 | Cambuur attack 0.918 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Cambuur xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Cambuur kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
VVV Venlo 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Cambuur part of?
VVV Venlo vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 30% chance of winning, Cambuur a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both VVV Venlo and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): VVV Venlo 0W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Cambuur in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (0.91) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.92x) against VVV Venlo's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.29
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.54
1.37
Cambuur xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.37 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VVV Venlo come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 11D 20L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (15W 9D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.17 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
VVV Venlo's home form reads 11W 4D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (9W 2D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.67 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Cambuur in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 15W 9D 22L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Cambuur away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.61 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 5-0 on 28 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 1, Cambuur have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 65%, Cambuur 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for VVV Venlo and 65% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VVV Venlo's games and 61% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of VVV Venlo's matches and 65% of Cambuur's.
Do VVV Venlo and Cambuur tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out VVV Venlo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat VVV Venlo 0-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.17 xG and Cambuur 1.37 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VVV Venlo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Cambuur attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 30% | Draw 30% | Cambuur 40%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 61%, Cambuur 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambuur's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.22 PPG, Cambuur 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.