VVV Venlo 2-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as VVV Venlo welcome Almere City FC to Covebo Stadion - De Koel -. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 0W 1D 1L from 2 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VVV Venlo at 0.50 PPG versus Almere City FC's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.30 xG and Almere City FC 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.069 / defence 1.245 | Almere City FC attack 0.778 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 0.959 / away 1.674. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing VVV Venlo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 VVV Venlo games / 2 Almere City FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 43%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Almere City FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG VVV Venlo 1.30 / Almere City FC 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.069 / def 1.245 | Almere City FC attack 0.778 / def 1.269 | league avg home 0.959 / away 1.674 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Almere City FC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
VVV Venlo 2 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC part of?
VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 29% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VVV Venlo and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
29%
3.44
28%
3.61
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.92
1.62
Almere City FC xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
6%
17.42
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.62 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 0.50 PPG, Almere City FC on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2022, when VVV Venlo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 5, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Almere City FC?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of VVV Venlo's games and 100% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of VVV Venlo's matches and 50% of Almere City FC's.
Do VVV Venlo and Almere City FC tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VVV Venlo defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Almere City FC 2-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.30 xG and Almere City FC 1.62 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 1.07 / defence 1.25 against Almere City FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.27, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 43%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 100%, Almere City FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 0.50 PPG, Almere City FC 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.