Vitesse 2-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host Waalwijk at GelreDome in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 10 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 4W 2D 4L at GelreDome — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vitesse at 1.20 PPG versus Waalwijk's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitesse register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Waalwijk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Vitesse's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Waalwijk have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 60% and Waalwijk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 70% | Waalwijk 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.47 xG and Waalwijk 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.847 / defence 1.032 | Waalwijk attack 0.901 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.446. Data: 56 Vitesse games / 19 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 40% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 34%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Waalwijk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | Waalwijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 40% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Vitesse 1.47 / Waalwijk 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.847 / def 1.032 | Waalwijk attack 0.901 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Waalwijk xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Waalwijk kick off?
Vitesse vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 10 December 2025 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Vitesse 2 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Vitesse vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Waalwijk part of?
Vitesse vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 40% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vitesse and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
Record (7 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 4W.
What form are Vitesse and Waalwijk in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.85) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.84
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.82
1.34
Waalwijk xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.34 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 15D 22L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 13W 12D 28L from 53 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.19 PPG, Waalwijk on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 7D 15L from 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.40 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 13W 12D 28L in their last 53 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Waalwijk away?
Vitesse's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.38 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Waalwijk runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vitesse's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Vitesse
3
Draws
4
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
From 9 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Waalwijk have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Vitesse 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 58%, Waalwijk 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Vitesse and 65% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Vitesse's games and 69% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Vitesse's matches and 65% of Waalwijk's.
Do Vitesse and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitesse edge out Waalwijk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Waalwijk 2-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.47 xG and Waalwijk 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Waalwijk attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 40% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 34%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 70%, Waalwijk 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.19 PPG, Waalwijk 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.