Vitesse 1-3 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as Vitesse welcome Almere City FC to GelreDome. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Vitesse have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at GelreDome, Vitesse have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Vitesse) versus 1.60 (Almere City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vitesse, 1 for Almere City FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitesse trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Almere City FC trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 61% versus Almere City FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 70% | Almere City FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 2.04 xG and Almere City FC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.983 / defence 0.898 | Almere City FC attack 1.174 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.476. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Vitesse games / 30 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 48% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Almere City FC 3.45. Vitesse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | Almere City FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 48% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Vitesse 2.04 / Almere City FC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.983 / def 0.898 | Almere City FC attack 1.174 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Almere City FC xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Almere City FC kick off?
Vitesse vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Vitesse 1 - 3 Almere City FC.
Where is Vitesse vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Almere City FC part of?
Vitesse vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 48% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Vitesse and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Vitesse and Almere City FC in?
Vitesse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
48%
2.06
22%
4.46
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.60
1.56
Almere City FC xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.24
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
4%
26.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.56 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitesse's recent record stands at 21W 18D 25L from 64 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 33L across 64 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.27 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 13W 7D 11L from 31 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 8W 6D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 games (1.27 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 18W 13D 33L in their last 64 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Almere City FC away?
Vitesse's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.48 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Almere City FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Vitesse
2
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Almere City FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 0, Almere City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Vitesse 0-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 61%, Almere City FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Vitesse and 58% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Vitesse's games and 55% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Vitesse's matches and 58% of Almere City FC's.
Do Vitesse and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Vitesse 1-3 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 2.04 xG and Almere City FC 1.56 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Almere City FC outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Almere City FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.28, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 48% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 29%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 70%, Almere City FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.27 PPG, Almere City FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.