Roda 2-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Monday 26 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 2W 4D 4L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VVV Venlo have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Roda, 2 for VVV Venlo and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with VVV Venlo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 61% versus VVV Venlo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 59% | VVV Venlo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.58 xG and VVV Venlo 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.961 / defence 1.030 | VVV Venlo attack 0.872 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.568. Data: 61 Roda games / 61 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 34%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | VVV Venlo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | VVV Venlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Roda 1.58 / VVV Venlo 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.961 / def 1.030 | VVV Venlo attack 0.872 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: Roda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.41
VVV Venlo xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Roda vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 January 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Roda 2 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is Roda vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs VVV Venlo part of?
Roda vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 41% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Roda and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and VVV Venlo?
Record (9 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 5 | VVV Venlo 2W.
What form are Roda and VVV Venlo in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Roda's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.87x) against Roda's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
41%
2.42
25%
3.98
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Roda xG
Total xG
2.99
1.41
VVV Venlo xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
7%
14.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Roda and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Roda and 1.41 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 18D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.16 PPG from 61 outings (21W 8D 32L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Roda against 1.16 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (11W 3D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.21 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 22W 18D 21L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 21W 8D 32L in their last 61 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or VVV Venlo away?
Roda's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.50 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 7 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Roda
6
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 2, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Roda and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Roda 2-2 VVV Venlo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, VVV Venlo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Roda and 70% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Roda's recent matches and 50% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Roda's matches and 70% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Roda and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and VVV Venlo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Roda and VVV Venlo drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.58 xG and VVV Venlo 1.41 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against VVV Venlo attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 41% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 34%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 59%, VVV Venlo 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.38 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.