Roda 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host FC OSS at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 5W 1D 4L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC OSS have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 0.90 PPG versus FC OSS's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Roda, 1 for FC OSS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 57% versus FC OSS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 57% | FC OSS 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.69 xG and FC OSS 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.074 / defence 1.069 | FC OSS attack 0.729 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.371. Data: 56 Roda games / 56 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 24%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | FC OSS 4.17. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 70% | FC OSS 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Roda 1.69 / FC OSS 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.074 / def 1.069 | FC OSS attack 0.729 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Roda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC OSS xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC OSS kick off?
Roda vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Roda 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Roda vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC OSS part of?
Roda vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 52% chance of winning, FC OSS a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Roda and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Roda and FC OSS in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.07x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.15
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Roda xG
Total xG
2.76
1.07
FC OSS xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
4%
22.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Roda and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Roda and 1.07 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Roda have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 24W 16D 16L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 16W 10D 30L from 56 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.81 PPG from 27 outings (14W 7D 6L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 6W 4D 17L from 27 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.18 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 24W 16D 16L in their last 56 games (1.57 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 16W 10D 30L in their last 56 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC OSS away?
Roda's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.81 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
2
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, FC OSS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC OSS?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 59%, FC OSS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Roda and 67% for FC OSS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC OSS in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Roda's games and 52% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Roda's matches and 67% of FC OSS's.
Do Roda and FC OSS tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Roda and FC OSS drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.69 xG and FC OSS 1.07 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against FC OSS attack 0.73 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 52% | Draw 24% | FC OSS 24%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 57%, FC OSS 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.