Roda 2-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host FC OSS at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 2W 2D 2L from 6 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 0W 1D 2L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.33 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 3W 1D 2L from 6 outings — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.33. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC OSS have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 1.33 PPG versus FC OSS's 1.67. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 67% versus FC OSS 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Roda 83% | FC OSS 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.28 xG and FC OSS 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.828 / defence 1.246 | FC OSS attack 0.595 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.436. Data: 6 Roda games / 6 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 31%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | FC OSS 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 67% | FC OSS 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 41% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Roda 1.28 / FC OSS 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.828 / def 1.246 | FC OSS attack 0.595 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Roda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC OSS xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC OSS kick off?
Roda vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Roda 2 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Roda vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC OSS part of?
Roda vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 41% chance of winning, FC OSS a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Roda and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and FC OSS in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.83x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.60
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Roda xG
Total xG
2.35
1.07
FC OSS xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Roda and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Roda and 1.07 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Roda have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC OSS's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.33 PPG, FC OSS on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Roda have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC OSS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC OSS away?
FC OSS's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 0.33 PPG; FC OSS away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Roda or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC OSS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
2
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, FC OSS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC OSS?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Roda 67% BTTS, FC OSS 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Roda) and 33% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC OSS in 33%; Roda have failed to score in 33% of games; FC OSS in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Roda's recent matches and 0% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Roda's recent games and 33% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and FC OSS tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat FC OSS 2-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.28 xG and FC OSS 1.07 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against FC OSS attack 0.59 / defence 1.13, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 41% | Draw 28% | FC OSS 31%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 83%, FC OSS 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC OSS's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.33 PPG, FC OSS 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.