Roda 0-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Roda welcome Almere City FC to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Roda) versus 1.70 (Almere City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Roda have won 1, Almere City FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Almere City FC trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 57% versus Almere City FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Almere City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.07 xG and Almere City FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.886 / defence 1.019 | Almere City FC attack 0.973 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.213. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Roda games / 63 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 32% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Almere City FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Roda 80% | Almere City FC 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 32% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Roda 1.07 / Almere City FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.886 / def 1.019 | Almere City FC attack 0.973 / def 0.701 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Almere City FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Almere City FC kick off?
Roda vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Almere City FC?
Roda 0 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Roda vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Almere City FC part of?
Roda vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 32% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Roda and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are Roda and Almere City FC in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.89) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
32%
3.08
28%
3.51
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Roda xG
Total xG
2.27
1.20
Almere City FC xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Roda and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Roda and 1.20 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda come into this having played 63 games, going 27W 17D 19L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.33 PPG from 63 outings (24W 12D 27L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.56 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Roda's home form reads 16W 8D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.32 points per game from 31 outings (12W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 27W 17D 19L in their last 63 games (1.56 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 24W 12D 27L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Almere City FC away?
Roda's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.81 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Almere City FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Roda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Roda
0
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, Almere City FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Almere City FC 1-2 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 61%, Almere City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Roda) and 61% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Roda's games and 58% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Roda's matches and 61% of Almere City FC's.
Do Roda and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Roda 0-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.07 xG and Almere City FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 1.02 against Almere City FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.70, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 32% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 39%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Almere City FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.56 PPG, Almere City FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.