Roda 3-4 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 41%, yet in-form Roda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Roda vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 4 as Roda welcome Almere City FC to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 2W 0D 1L from 3 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. They are averaging 2.67 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.67 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Almere City FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 67% and Almere City FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Roda 100% | Almere City FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.27 xG and Almere City FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.938 / defence 1.196 | Almere City FC attack 0.748 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.621. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Roda games / 3 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 33% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Almere City FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Roda (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 67% | Almere City FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 33% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Roda 1.27 / Almere City FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.938 / def 1.196 | Almere City FC attack 0.748 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.621 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Almere City FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Almere City FC kick off?
Roda vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Almere City FC?
Roda 3 - 4 Almere City FC.
Where is Roda vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Almere City FC part of?
Roda vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 33% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Roda and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and Almere City FC in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.94) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
33%
3.01
26%
3.91
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Roda xG
Total xG
2.72
1.45
Almere City FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.83
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Roda and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Roda and 1.45 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Roda or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and Almere City FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Roda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Roda
0
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, Almere City FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Almere City FC 1-2 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Roda at 67%, Almere City FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Roda and 67% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Roda's games and 100% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Roda's matches and 67% of Almere City FC's.
Do Roda and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Roda 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Roda 3-4 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.27 xG and Almere City FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almere City FC outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against Almere City FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.33, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 33% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 41%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 100%, Almere City FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Roda shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.