Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and ADO Den Haag meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Roda — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 62% and ADO Den Haag 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 60% | ADO Den Haag 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.60 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.988 / defence 1.068 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.319 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.534. ADO Den Haag have an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Roda games / 62 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 27% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 49%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | ADO Den Haag 2.04. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 80% | ADO Den Haag 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 27% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Roda 1.60 / ADO Den Haag 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.988 / def 1.068 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.319 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Roda xG
Expected Goals
2.16
ADO Den Haag xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Roda 0 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Roda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Roda vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 27% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Roda and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
Record (9 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 3 | ADO Den Haag 3W.
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.99x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.32x) against Roda's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 2.16.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
27%
3.66
23%
4.30
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Roda xG
Total xG
3.76
2.16
ADO Den Haag xG
3.66
27%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
12%
8.67
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
3%
31.77
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Roda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Roda and 2.16 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Roda have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 19D 21L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 37W 11D 15L from 63 games, 1.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Roda.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.48 PPG from 31 outings (12W 10D 9L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 16W 8D 7L from 31 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.02 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 23W 19D 21L in their last 63 games (1.40 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 37W 11D 15L in their last 63 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.48 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 5-0 on 21 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
3
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Roda 0-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Roda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 52%, ADO Den Haag 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Roda) and 61% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Roda's games and 61% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Roda's matches and 61% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Roda and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Roda 0-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.60 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.16 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Roda fell 1.6 short of their projected output. ADO Den Haag outscored their 2.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.32 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 27% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 49%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 60%, ADO Den Haag 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.