PEC Zwolle 3-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 6 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for PEC Zwolle, 2.20 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 45% versus Almere City FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 45% | Almere City FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and Almere City FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.054 / defence 1.081 | Almere City FC attack 0.876 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.355. Data: 17 PEC Zwolle games / 56 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Almere City FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 80% | Almere City FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.40 / Almere City FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.054 / def 1.081 | Almere City FC attack 0.876 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Almere City FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 January 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 40% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (1.05) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.88x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 17/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.86
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.68
1.28
Almere City FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.28 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 19W 8D 24L from 51 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 23L across 51 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.29 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 8W 7D 10L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 9W 5D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 19W 8D 24L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 19W 9D 23L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.24 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Almere City FC 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 64%, Almere City FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PEC Zwolle) and 60% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of PEC Zwolle's games and 56% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 60% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Almere City FC tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Almere City FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Almere City FC 3-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and Almere City FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against Almere City FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.82, drawn from 17/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 34%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 45%, Almere City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.27 PPG, Almere City FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.