NAC Breda 2-3 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Jong Utrecht at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 1.20 PPG versus Jong Utrecht's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 2, Jong Utrecht 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 51% versus Jong Utrecht 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 54% | Jong Utrecht 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.67 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.845 / defence 1.201 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.781 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.911 / away 1.723. Data: 5 NAC Breda games / 44 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 40% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 37%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Jong Utrecht 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | Jong Utrecht 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 40% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG NAC Breda 1.67 / Jong Utrecht 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.845 / def 1.201 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.781 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.911 / away 1.723 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Jong Utrecht xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 11 September 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
NAC Breda 2 - 3 Jong Utrecht.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 40% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 2 | Jong Utrecht 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.84) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
40%
2.53
23%
4.33
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.28
1.62
Jong Utrecht xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
8%
12.74
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.62 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 39 games, going 8W 12D 19L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 1.03 PPG from 39 outings (10W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 0.92 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.38 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 19L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.21 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
3
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht?
From 7 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Jong Utrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when NAC Breda 2-3 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, Jong Utrecht 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (NAC Breda) and 53% (Jong Utrecht).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 37% of games; Jong Utrecht in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 58% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of NAC Breda's recent games and 53% of Jong Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat NAC Breda 2-3 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.67 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.62 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.78 / defence 1.03, drawn from 5/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 40% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 37%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Jong Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 54%, Jong Utrecht 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.92 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.