NAC Breda 1-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Helmond Sport travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 August 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 5W 3D 2L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Helmond Sport haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Helmond Sport's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.10 PPG, Helmond Sport 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for NAC Breda, 1 for Helmond Sport and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 0–4 with Helmond Sport winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 47% versus Helmond Sport 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 55% | Helmond Sport 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.84 xG and Helmond Sport 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.016 / defence 0.835 | Helmond Sport attack 0.931 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.435. Data: 38 NAC Breda games / 38 Helmond Sport games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 54% | Draw 23% | Helmond Sport 23%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Helmond Sport 4.35. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | Helmond Sport 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 54% | Draw 23% | Helmond Sport 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG NAC Breda 1.84 / Helmond Sport 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.016 / def 0.835 | Helmond Sport attack 0.931 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Helmond Sport xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport kick off?
NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport part of?
NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 54% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both NAC Breda and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Helmond Sport?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Helmond Sport in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.02x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.39
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.96
1.11
Helmond Sport xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
4%
27.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.11 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 16W 9D 13L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. NAC Breda haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Helmond Sport's form line: 8W 7D 23L from 38 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. Helmond Sport haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (10W 6D 3L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 4W 3D 12L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.03 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Pre-Season
Helmond Sport
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 8W 7D 23L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Helmond Sport away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.89 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.79 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Helmond Sport runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Helmond Sport won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Helmond Sport?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, Helmond Sport 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (NAC Breda) and 53% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 47% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of NAC Breda's recent games and 53% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Helmond Sport 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Helmond Sport 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.84 xG and Helmond Sport 1.11 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.02 / defence 0.83 against Helmond Sport attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 54% | Draw 23% | Helmond Sport 23%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 55%, Helmond Sport 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.