MVV 1-3 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 34 as MVV welcome Waalwijk to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, MVV have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at De Geusselt, MVV have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Waalwijk's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of MVV's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, MVV have won 0, Waalwijk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Waalwijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 52% versus Waalwijk 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 61% | Waalwijk 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.56 xG and Waalwijk 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.028 / defence 1.222 | Waalwijk attack 1.099 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.508. Data: 71 MVV games / 33 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 30% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 49%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.33 | Draw 4.76 | Waalwijk 2.04. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: MVV 80% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 30% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG MVV 1.56 / Waalwijk 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.028 / def 1.222 | Waalwijk attack 1.099 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
MVV xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Waalwijk xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Waalwijk kick off?
MVV vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Waalwijk?
MVV 1 - 3 Waalwijk.
Where is MVV vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Waalwijk part of?
MVV vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 30% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both MVV and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are MVV and Waalwijk in?
MVV (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates MVV's attack at 1.03x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
30%
3.34
21%
4.67
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
MVV xG
Total xG
3.59
2.03
Waalwijk xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
13%
7.58
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
4%
25.30
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are MVV and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for MVV and 2.03 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
MVV come into this having played 67 games, going 18W 17D 32L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.09 PPG from 67 outings (19W 16D 32L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.06 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
MVV's home form reads 14W 8D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.91 points per game from 33 outings (7W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
MVV are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.49 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 67%.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 18W 17D 32L in their last 67 games (1.06 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 19W 16D 32L in their last 67 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Waalwijk away?
MVV's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.52 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between MVV and Waalwijk runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
MVV
0
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, MVV have won 0, Waalwijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when MVV 1-3 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — MVV at 64%, Waalwijk at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for MVV and 67% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of MVV's games and 70% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of MVV's matches and 67% of Waalwijk's.
Do MVV and Waalwijk tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat MVV 1-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.56 xG and Waalwijk 2.03 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 2.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Waalwijk attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 30% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 49%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 61%, Waalwijk 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.06 PPG, Waalwijk 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.