MVV 2-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as MVV welcome De Graafschap to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 January 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's home record at De Geusselt: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
MVV carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for MVV, 1 for De Graafschap and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 58% versus De Graafschap 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 64% | De Graafschap 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.10 xG and De Graafschap 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.242 / defence 0.846 | De Graafschap attack 1.060 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.355. Data: 55 MVV games / 56 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 58% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 22%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | De Graafschap 4.55. The model has a clear lean to MVV (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 70% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 6 Jan 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 58% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG MVV 2.10 / De Graafschap 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.242 / def 0.846 | De Graafschap attack 1.060 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: MVV (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.21
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs De Graafschap kick off?
MVV vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 January 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
MVV 2 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is MVV vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs De Graafschap part of?
MVV vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 58% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both MVV and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in?
MVV (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 1.24x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
58%
1.74
21%
4.80
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
MVV xG
Total xG
3.31
1.21
De Graafschap xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
3%
37.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are MVV and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for MVV and 1.21 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, MVV have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 22W 7D 26L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 19W 15D 21L from 55 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.33 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 12W 4D 11L from 27 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.36 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 22W 7D 26L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or De Graafschap away?
MVV's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.52 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
Have MVV or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
MVV
4
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, De Graafschap have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did MVV and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between MVV and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 63%, De Graafschap 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for MVV and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of MVV's games and 56% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of MVV's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do MVV and De Graafschap tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV and De Graafschap finished level at 2-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.10 xG and De Graafschap 1.21 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.24 / defence 0.85 against De Graafschap attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 58% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 22%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, De Graafschap 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.33 PPG, De Graafschap 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.