Jong Utrecht 1-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Telstar at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 9 as Jong Utrecht welcome Telstar to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Telstar's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jong Utrecht, 2 for Telstar and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–5 with Telstar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Telstar in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 50% versus Telstar 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 50% | Telstar 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.94 xG and Telstar 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.617 / defence 1.415 | Telstar attack 1.040 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.470. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Jong Utrecht games / 46 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 14% | Draw 22% | Telstar 64%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Telstar 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Telstar at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 40% | Telstar 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 14% | Draw 22% | Telstar 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.94 / Telstar 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.617 / def 1.415 | Telstar attack 1.040 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Telstar (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Telstar xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Telstar kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Telstar part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 14% chance of winning, Telstar a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Telstar?
Record (6 meetings): Jong Utrecht 2W | Draws 2 | Telstar 2W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Telstar in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Telstar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.62x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
14%
7.22
22%
4.50
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.10
2.16
Telstar xG
7.22
14%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
11%
8.70
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
2%
62.75
25%
4.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 2.16 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.63 PPG on a 5W 14D 27L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 12W 11D 23L from 46 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.63 PPG, Telstar on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.83 PPG from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 4W 4D 15L from 23 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.28 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Telstar in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 14D 27L in their last 46 games (0.63 PPG), while Telstar have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Telstar away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.83 PPG; Telstar away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Telstar won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Telstar have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Telstar 6-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 39%, Telstar 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Jong Utrecht) and 48% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 48% of games; Telstar in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 52% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 48% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Telstar tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Telstar in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 9, as Jong Utrecht and Telstar drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.94 xG and Telstar 2.16 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Telstar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.62 / defence 1.42 against Telstar attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 14% | Draw 22% | Telstar 64%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 50%, Telstar 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.63 PPG, Telstar 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.