Jong Utrecht 0-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as Jong Utrecht welcome PEC Zwolle to Stadion Galgenwaard. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Galgenwaard this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PEC Zwolle — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Jong Utrecht's 30% rate and PEC Zwolle's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 51% versus PEC Zwolle 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 58% | PEC Zwolle 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.10 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.648 / defence 0.991 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.251 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.355. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.648 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Jong Utrecht games / 11 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 25% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 51%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | PEC Zwolle 1.96. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Jong Utrecht 30% | PEC Zwolle 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 25% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.10 / PEC Zwolle 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.648 / def 0.991 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.251 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.68
PEC Zwolle xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 25% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.65x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
25%
4.03
24%
4.14
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.78
1.68
PEC Zwolle xG
4.03
25%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
5%
21.66
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.68 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 11W 6D 28L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 14W 8D 23L from 45 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.87 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.77 PPG from 22 outings (5W 2D 15L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 8W 1D 13L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.18 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 6D 28L in their last 45 games (0.87 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 14W 8D 23L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.77 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2023, when PEC Zwolle 2-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Jong Utrecht 36% BTTS, PEC Zwolle 32%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Jong Utrecht) and 50% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 54% of games; PEC Zwolle in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 32% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 50% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Jong Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Jong Utrecht 0-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.10 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.68 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.65 / defence 0.99 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.25 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 25% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 51%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 58%, PEC Zwolle 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.87 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.