Jong Utrecht 1-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 40%, yet in-form Jong AZ provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 12 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Jong AZ are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Jong AZ have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Jong Utrecht's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Jong AZ winning.
It is worth noting that Jong AZ have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 42% versus Jong AZ 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 44% | Jong AZ 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.22 xG and Jong AZ 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.633 / defence 0.845 | Jong AZ attack 0.904 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.303. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Jong Utrecht games / 62 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 32% | Jong AZ 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Jong AZ 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong AZ (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jong Utrecht 40% | Jong AZ 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 12 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 32% | Jong AZ 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.22 / Jong AZ 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.633 / def 0.845 | Jong AZ attack 0.904 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Jong AZ xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 February 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 40% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 4W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.63) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.90x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.13
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.22
0.99
Jong AZ xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.99 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 11W 15D 36L from 62 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 24L across 62 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 9W 10D 11L from 30 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.77 PPG overall — Jong Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 8W 5D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 15D 36L in their last 62 games (0.77 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 24W 14D 24L in their last 62 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.23 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 4-0 on 17 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
7
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Jong AZ have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Jong AZ 1-4 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 33%, Jong AZ 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Jong Utrecht) and 67% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 47% of games; Jong AZ in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 63% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 67% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Jong Utrecht 1-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.22 xG and Jong AZ 0.99 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.63 / defence 0.84 against Jong AZ attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 32% | Jong AZ 28%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 44%, Jong AZ 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.