Jong Utrecht 0-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4 plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 1 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 1.88 PPG across 8 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 0.88 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4 this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Emmen (all games): 4W 1D 3L across 8 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.62 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.88 for Jong Utrecht, 1.62 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 50% versus Emmen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 62% | Emmen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.20 xG and Emmen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.908 / defence 1.049 | Emmen attack 0.848 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.343. Data: 8 Jong Utrecht games / 8 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 36% | Draw 28% | Emmen 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Emmen 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 33% | Emmen 75%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4 • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 36% | Draw 28% | Emmen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.20 / Emmen 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.908 / def 1.049 | Emmen attack 0.848 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Emmen xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 36% chance of winning, Emmen a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Emmen in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-1L in 8 | 1.88 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Emmen (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.91) and Emmen's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.85x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.61
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Emmen xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.20 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 4W 3D 1L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.62 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Emmen have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Emmen away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; Emmen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Emmen in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Emmen go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
8
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Emmen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 33%, Emmen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Jong Utrecht and 67% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 33% of games; Emmen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 67% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 67% of Emmen's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Emmen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Jong Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Utrecht 0-1 at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.20 xG and Emmen 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Emmen attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 36% | Draw 28% | Emmen 36%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 62%, Emmen 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Emmen's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 1.88 PPG, Emmen 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.