Jong Utrecht 0-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host De Graafschap at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 0D 6L this season (9 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 7W 0D 2L from 9 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.33 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. De Graafschap are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jong Utrecht have won 0, De Graafschap 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 63% versus De Graafschap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 68% | De Graafschap 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.95 xG and De Graafschap 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.742 / defence 1.429 | De Graafschap attack 1.154 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.541. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Jong Utrecht games / 19 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 12% | Draw 16% | De Graafschap 72%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 8.33 | Draw 6.25 | De Graafschap 1.39. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 44% | De Graafschap 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 20 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 12% | Draw 16% | De Graafschap 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.95 / De Graafschap 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.742 / def 1.429 | De Graafschap attack 1.154 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.541 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.54
De Graafschap xG
56%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 December 2021 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 12% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 72% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 2.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-3 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
12%
8.39
16%
6.17
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 3
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.49
2.54
De Graafschap xG
8.39
12%
Home win
6.17
16%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
8%
12.69
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
1%
106.48
28%
3.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 2.54 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 6W 4D 9L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 10W 3D 6L from 19 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (3W 0D 6L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 7W 0D 2L from 9 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.74 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.63 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.00 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
De Graafschap go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
5
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, De Graafschap have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 44%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Jong Utrecht and 89% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 33%; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Jong Utrecht's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 89% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong Utrecht 0-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.95 xG and De Graafschap 2.54 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.74 / defence 1.43 against De Graafschap attack 1.15 / defence 1.08, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 12% | Draw 16% | De Graafschap 72%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 68%, De Graafschap 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.