Jong PSV U21 3-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Herdgang plays host to Jong PSV U21 versus Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 1 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's home record at De Herdgang: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jong PSV U21 are significantly better at De Herdgang than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Waalwijk are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 71% and Waalwijk 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 76% | Waalwijk 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.60 xG and Waalwijk 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.012 / defence 1.120 | Waalwijk attack 0.939 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.451. Data: 55 Jong PSV U21 games / 17 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 39% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 36%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waalwijk (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 50% | Waalwijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 1 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 39% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.60 / Waalwijk 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.012 / def 1.120 | Waalwijk attack 0.939 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Waalwijk xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 1 December 2025 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk?
Jong PSV U21 3 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 39% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Waalwijk in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 1.01x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.94x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
39%
2.54
24%
4.12
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.12
1.53
Waalwijk xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.53 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 9D 27L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.00 PPG from 51 outings (13W 12D 26L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.00 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 8W 4D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (4W 7D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.41 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 9D 27L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 13W 12D 26L in their last 51 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Waalwijk away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.12 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 4-1 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Waalwijk?
From 3 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Waalwijk 2-2 Jong PSV U21.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Jong PSV U21, 68% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Jong PSV U21 and 64% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Jong PSV U21's games and 68% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 64% of Waalwijk's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Waalwijk 3-1 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.60 xG and Waalwijk 1.53 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Waalwijk attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 39% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 36%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 76%, Waalwijk 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.06 PPG, Waalwijk 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.