Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jong PSV U21 (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong PSV U21 face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Jong PSV U21 welcome Jong Utrecht to De Herdgang. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 at De Herdgang this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 3 for Jong Utrecht and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 3–5 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Jong Utrecht 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 65% | Jong Utrecht 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.75 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.894 / defence 0.856 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.912 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 Jong PSV U21 games / 48 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 52% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Utrecht 4.00. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 23 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 52% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.75 / Jong Utrecht 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.894 / def 0.856 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.912 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Jong Utrecht xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Monday 23 November 2026 at De Herdgang.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 52% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Record (10 meetings): Jong PSV U21 5W | Draws 2 | Jong Utrecht 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 0.89x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.25
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.90
1.14
Jong Utrecht xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
4%
23.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.14 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 20W 9D 19L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 14W 11D 23L from 48 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.44 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.71 PPG from 24 outings (12W 5D 7L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 5D 14L from 24 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.54 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Jong Utrecht in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 20W 9D 19L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 11D 23L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.71 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
3
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Utrecht 5-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 58%, Jong Utrecht 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Jong PSV U21) and 58% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jong PSV U21's games and 62% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 58% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.