Jong PSV U21 2-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Jong AZ at Sportcomplex De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex De Herdgang, Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 0D 3L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong PSV U21 at 1.30 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 67% versus Jong AZ 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 67% | Jong AZ 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.28 xG and Jong AZ 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.991 / defence 1.224 | Jong AZ attack 0.631 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.469. Data: 12 Jong PSV U21 games / 12 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 33%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Jong AZ 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Jong PSV U21 67% | Jong AZ 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.28 / Jong AZ 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.991 / def 1.224 | Jong AZ attack 0.631 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Jong AZ xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 40% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.64
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
2.42
1.14
Jong AZ xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.14 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 4W 2D 6L from 12 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 5L across 12 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong AZ by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Jong PSV U21 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 2W 0D 3L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.00 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.80 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong PSV U21 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
3
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, Jong AZ have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Jong AZ 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 80%, Jong AZ 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Jong PSV U21 and 40% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Jong PSV U21's games and 40% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 40% of Jong AZ's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Jong AZ 2-0 at Sportcomplex De Herdgang, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.28 xG and Jong AZ 1.14 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.99 / defence 1.22 against Jong AZ attack 0.63 / defence 1.01, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 33%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 67%, Jong AZ 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Jong PSV U21 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.