Jong PSV U21 1-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht meet at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong PSV U21's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Dordrecht arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Jong PSV U21, 3 for Dordrecht and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2024, ended Jong PSV U21 0–2 Dordrecht — a Dordrecht win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 75% | Dordrecht 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jong PSV U21 surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Dordrecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.35 xG and Dordrecht 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.054 / defence 1.595 | Dordrecht attack 1.070 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.307. Dordrecht bring a tight defence (rating 0.784, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Jong PSV U21's projected output down. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.595 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dordrecht's projected output up. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 63 games and Dordrecht's last 64.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 22% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 57%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 4.51 | Draw 4.83 | Dordrecht 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.35 / 2.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 100% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 27 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 24 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 22% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Jong PSV U21 1.35 / Dordrecht 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.054 / def 1.595 | Dordrecht attack 1.070 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Dordrecht xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 24 February 2025 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 22% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 57% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.05) and Dordrecht's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (1.07x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 2.23.
These ratings are built from Jong PSV U21's last 63 games and Dordrecht's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
22%
4.51
21%
4.83
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.58
2.23
Dordrecht xG
4.51
22%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
11%
9.32
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
2%
42.01
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.23 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 17W 10D 36L from 63 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 31W 22D 10L across 63 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 8W 6D 17L from their last 31 home games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 13W 10D 8L across their last 31 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 63%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong PSV U21 (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 10D 36L in their last 63 games (0.97 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 31W 22D 10L in their last 63 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 0.97 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won Dordrecht 1-4 Jong PSV U21 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 2D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Dordrecht have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Jong PSV U21 0-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Jong PSV U21, 64% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Jong PSV U21 and 58% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Jong PSV U21's games and 64% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 58% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 84% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Jong PSV U21 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.35 xG and Dordrecht 2.23 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.05 / defence 1.59 against Dordrecht attack 1.07 / defence 0.78, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 22% | Draw 21% | Dordrecht 57%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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