Jong AZ 2-3 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host PEC Zwolle at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 5W 0D 5L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.70 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Jong AZ trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 45% versus PEC Zwolle 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 48% | PEC Zwolle 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.49 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.135 / defence 1.049 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.447 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.327. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.447 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Jong AZ games / 6 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 29% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 50%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | PEC Zwolle 2.00. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Jong AZ 50% | PEC Zwolle 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 29% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Jong AZ 1.49 / PEC Zwolle 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.135 / def 1.049 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.447 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
2.01
PEC Zwolle xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle?
Jong AZ 2 - 3 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 29% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 50% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Jong AZ and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and PEC Zwolle in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
29%
3.51
22%
4.64
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.50
2.01
PEC Zwolle xG
3.51
29%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
13%
7.49
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
4%
26.28
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Jong AZ and 2.01 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 7D 21L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.08 PPG from 40 outings (12W 7D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.08 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 8W 3D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (7W 1D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.12 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 7D 21L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.35 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jong AZ
0
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when PEC Zwolle 4-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 45%, PEC Zwolle 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jong AZ) and 45% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 45% of games; PEC Zwolle in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 30% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jong AZ's recent games and 45% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Jong AZ 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Jong AZ 2-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.49 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.01 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.45 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 29% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 50%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 48%, PEC Zwolle 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.08 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.